- The Bitsing method is used daily by the most divergent organizations at gaining their aims – from a multinational with 265 billion turnover to a start-up.
- With the Bitsing method you achieve exceptional results; many percents turnover increase in dangerously decreasing markets are no problem and 300% increase is no exception.
- The Bitsing method is embraced and is instructed at universities worldwide – which have found scientific proof – and at Colleges.
- The Bitsing method has been accredited by the Ministry of Education Culture and Science of The Netherlands as a Bachelor education.
- The Bitsing method is part of the European Master program in System Dynamics, initiated by the European Commission.
- The Bitsing method is mainstream for three winners of the election Commercial Director of the Year.
- The Bitsing method is the only business management method in the world that can predict results verifiably.
- Many organizations have introduced a Bitsing department.
- The largest companies are practicing the Bitsing method.
- And the most important reason: you obtain your objectives guaranteed.
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New York: het TV-interview met Taryn W. Brill
Deze episode van ‘New York Bestseller TV’ mag je niet missen.
Frans de Groot – grondlegger van de Bitsing methode – bespreekt zijn nieuwste boek ‘The Seven Laws of Guaranteed Growth, en het managementmodel dat duizenden organisaties en mensen over de wereld naadloos heeft geholpen hun doelen te bereiken, in deze nieuwe episode van New York Bestseller TV.
Shell en Bitsing forecasting
SHELL INTERNATIONAL
Always forecast
I write many blogs. I do this, on the one hand, to share the benefits of my Bitsing method and on the other hand to inspire people who are on the way to achieving their goals. The blogs are widely read. And one of them drew an unusual response: “Bitsing remains impressive in its simplicity and accuracy“.
It came from Sven Kramer, Senior Strategy, Planning & Performance Management Lead at one of the world’s biggest companies, Shell.
The positions Sven has occupied during his long career at Shell could fill their own chapter in this book. Rarely have I seen such an impressive career. So I am not surprised that Sven is responsible, at general management level, for ‘global business performance management in support of capital investment decisions worth billions’.
And I expect this makes him a source of inspiration when it comes to the business of making difficult decisions.
So I am pleased and surprised when the subject of this impressive resume responds to my request for an interview with an immediate ‘yes’. More so when he continues, “I have great confidence in your method. In fact, a smart colleague recently applied the theory to show that a large-scale, international initiative was not all that profitable”. I was, of course, flattered – and keen to know more.
Join me, as I learn a few things from a conversation with Sven Kramer.
We’re in the room in which Sven once attended one of my Bitsing Master Classes. “I still remember attending that inspirational master class here”, said Sven. “Your method has had some great successes. You will continue to grow, of course, if you just continue to apply your own model”, he smiles.
Sven has been inspired by Bitsing, in a number of ways. But what has intrigued him most is the method’s ability to detect answers to complex problems using fact-based models. “It’s this factual aspect that I find so special. It’s what occupies Shell each day; making things … factual. We don’t just take action. Everything is tested, made fact-based, as it were. Because what we are doing represents investments of billions.”
“In my role as international Strategic Advisor”, says Sven, “I received a question requiring the full attention of my colleagues and myself – as unprecedentedly large investments are involved, with equally large risks if it all goes wrong. The question concerned a new energy source – one that is hidden deep in the earth. (I’ll just use the general term ‘new energy source’ here, to avoid a long technical explanation.)”
“This new energy source had seen a lot of growth in some parts of the world, and the question was where else we could grow this new energy source? So they engaged my department to find out.”
“At the outset you think of the big financial potential; the resource is everywhere. But this quickly narrows to: ‘But where, precisely?’ So yes, we search, worldwide, at the locations where we think we’ll find it. And we went for it. We invested. We searched. But it gradually became apparent that it wasn’t going all that well. A kind of awareness dawned: We think we’ll find it somewhere … but how factually correct is that thought, in itself?
“Then you arrived, with the Master class on your Bitsing method. Your approach to making choices, in the form of the pencil philosophy, was particularly relevant to this problem, and we applied the model to our situation with the new energy source.”
“The issue is that we work in many different countries, all over the world. And the size of the investments involved and, indeed, of the world as exploration area, are a cause of concern. The investing starts with the first geological analysis, which of course costs money. Then there are the next steps, each of which cost even more money. I’ll keep it simple for the reader, but think of drilling a well, or a number of them; the amount of money you invest without knowing what it’s going to yield, grows with each step. And if there are, ultimately, cautious, positive signals, you’re not there yet. You must then build a whole lot of facilities and pipelines, and invest an even larger amount.
In short, all the stages you pass through and all the investments must at least be repaid. However, you don’t know in advance whether those cost will be recovered.”
Sven remains quiet for a moment. “Do you know that only a minority of the pilot projects are ultimately successful? Yet the investments in the majority of the unsuccessful attempts, or where we should have stopped projects earlier, must also be recovered?
This corresponds to those experienced in product innovation in general. Only about one innovation in ten is successful – and that one success must cover the investment in the other nine innovation attempts.
“That means”, continues Sven, “That this, single, successful project, that will undergo full development, must pay for all the projects, worldwide, that are not successful. And that is a lot of expense.
If you do the sums you quickly conclude that you need to raise your strike rate. Partly on the basis of your pencils model and the philosophy behind it.
We started costing out all aspects of the new energy source; using numbers which, as your model says, must be based on hard financial facts. This showed that our focus model actually wasn’t so great,” said Sven, his tone reflecting the negative impact of this discovery.
“The focus on this new energy source was out of proportion – far too big in relation to its expected turnover, to its capacity to produce a positive yield. That yield appeared more marginal than what we can make on traditional oil and gas – in other words from our ‘sharp pencils’, to use your terminology”, said Sven.
“So the new energy source was a ‘blunt pencil’, but one that got an amount of attention comparable to that given to our sharpest pencils, namely oil and gas. And we had to use its much smaller margin to cover a very large investment, with a much lower chance of success.
So, yes, as often happens with the Bitsing model, we had to conclude that our initial approach didn’t look too good from a commercial point of view. The degree of focus, of course, had to change.
So we did that.
We first looked at making a more intensive version equivalent to your model; at how we could refine the model and adapt it to our complex processes. By applying a more factual focus, based on financial facts, we aimed to increase the success rate of our selections.
We started identifying criteria, which raise the chance of financial success. We called them the Big Rules. If a project didn’t sufficiently match the criteria, we immediately stopped it. We stopped earlier than before, in this way keeping the costs as low as possible.
We applied this. And it then appeared that the new energy source had more chance of succeeding if you prospect in areas in which you already produce, areas that represent sharp pencils – where we have a firm handle on the models.
In contrast, if you explore in a totally new area, you have to set up everything without knowing whether the project is going to be profitable. To keep within the pencil metaphor, you have to sharpen that pencil from the start, but without knowing if you’ll ever manage to get a sharp point on it.
The selected areas, on the other hand, the pencil is already sharp [there is no perfection in underground oil & gas]. And so, working together, we arrived at the Big Rules: What do we have to take into account to increase our chances of success? In so doing, we had actually created a predictive model for future projects, with all the positive implications of such a tool, such as significant savings in terms of efficiency and an increase in effectiveness and success rate”, says Sven.
He follows this fascinating account with how they are now applying the approach in practice.
“We are therefore making increasingly critical evaluations of whether a project matches the Big Rules. If the answer is ‘yes’, we have a big chance of continuing the process. If not, then we must be disciplined enough to stop applying it, before it goes wrong.
I do operate at mega high level. One shows a number of slides and makes a proposal and then the people in the country take that and get to work. And once I see that happening I step out of it. But in the case of the strategy for the new energy source I hung around, because I found what happened there very special”, says Sven.
“It’s so great when you see a result. They were using the sharpened approach, which was something in itself, and there was a positive result for our business, for our employees and for the surrounding area.
What I could recommend to everyone is focus on your current source of business. Look at the facts: Do not just go out and start the adventure anywhere and then go for it, full on. Things could go very wrong. The chance of things going wrong is much larger if you’re in areas that are new to you, than in those where you already know all the ins and outs.
The risk of something going wrong in unfamiliar territory is many, many times bigger – and that is the risk we have now reduced, with this new approach.”
“You’ve been with Shell for a long time?” I ask.
“Yes”, says Sven – in the manner of one contemplating this for the first time. “In fact, for my whole working life. The funny thing is that when I had interviews at Shell there were people who’d worked for the company for ten, twelve, fifteen years – and I was amazed that they could have been with the same company for so long. I didn’t understand it. Now I can identify with them completely – the international opportunities, job rotation, leadership development and travel are all things I’ve now also experienced and, indeed, have enjoyed very much. So I would now give the same answers if young people asked me why I’ve worked for this company for so long. I have had many different jobs. I have worked in different countries. I work for one of the largest and oldest companies in the world. In fact a company like this is a world in itself. It has everything. Yes, it has everything and, as a result, evolves and continues to re-invent itself as time passes. Which fascinates me no end.
Somewhere in our company smart men and women are busy right now, just like you, discovering their own Bitsing method and, in the process, applying it. Using it to develop smart things and trigger better and different ways of doing things. They also help drive the entire company, by continuously improving themselves. It’s what we at Shell do, we’re always improving ourselves.
These people are spread throughout Shell, they are to be found in every department and country. And that is very inspiring.”
“Looking at the Bitsing method as a strategist, at Shell, I think it has wide applications”, says Sven. “I was also recently thinking about its application in searching for a job or career, and in the achievement of many other kinds of goals. This methodology automatically makes you think about the choices you are offered. You ask, ‘Does this job offer fit the overall picture?’ Instead of just taking any job. The whole career process could be approached more thoroughly and systematically. I haven’t developed this any further yet. But there, too, lie many opportunities. There are so many applications. I think it’s a great opportunity to investigate all these other applications and apply them.”
Nothing would please me more than to tackle these tasks, together with Sven. Instead, I ask my last question: “You responded to my blog with, ‘Bitsing remains impressive in its simplicity and accuracy’. It’s great to hear this from someone who works for a company the size of Shell, in a complex area, and who has so much influence in the world.”
Sven: “What we’re after isn’t something that’s available off the shelf. Gigantic sums of money are involved and a lot of uncertainty. And one has a lot of responsibility then, to the world. Because no one knows exactly what is under the ground. There are huge uncertainties, with many different aspects, in which a lot of money is involved. And a lot of responsibility – for instance to your employees and to the environment, to take just two aspects.
I would like to pass on the following advice: Keep making forecasts – and use that information to populate a financial model and a planning model.
Try to keep this as fact-based as possible. For us at Shell, this is not an easy process. We don’t know what is under the ground, or in a reservoir. And, to re-visit my example of the new energy source: whereas we originally invested in areas just because we thought we could be successful there (with investments that quickly rise to tens of billions), our forecasts are now significantly more fact-based, also using a Bitsing-like method.
So what I am basically saying is, don’t just start up a project. At least make sure that you estimate the risks you’re going to take, based on the facts to hand and taking all possible risk factors into account.”
Bitsing en het voorspellende model
Het is het jaar 2000 dat het voorspellende model van de Bitsing-methode werd ontdekt. Waarschijnlijk een van de meest bijzondere en waardevolle vindingen.
Het voorspellende model werd ontdekt toen Fortis Bank Commercial banking met de Bitsing-methode aan de slag ging, en drie keer zoveel verkopen met een winst wist te realiseren.
Lees hier het interview met de toenmalige verantwoordelijke bij Fortis Bank, Peter Frank Haarmans, hoe hij samen met grondlegger Frans de Groot de voorspelling maakte, en hoe doorslaggevend de medewerking van de interne organisatie is voor succes.
Het interview
We schrijven het jaar 2000. Ik wordt gebeld door Peter-Frank Haarmans, marketing manager van Fortis Bank Commercial banking, het zakelijke bedrijfsonderdeel dat de grote internationale ondernemingen bediend. ‘Een kennis van mij wees mij op het BITSER-model, klopt het verhaal dat daar zulke grote successen mee worden behaald?’ vroeg Peter-Frank mij. Je kunt vast wel bedenken wat ik hem gezegd heb, een afspraak was een feit. Peter-Frank had namelijk een probleem, of beter gezegd een uitdaging. Het management had hem de opdracht meegegeven de bank resultaatgerichter te laten werken. Men was gewend zomaar iets te doen, zonder zich af te vragen wat dat nu voor de bank oplevert.
Peter-Frank pakte als eerste de integratie van de gescheiden opererende marketing- en salesafdeling aan. Marketing was louter gericht op de kwalitatieve aspecten van de bank, zoals de positionering in de markt en de reclamecampagnes, terwijl het salesteam alleen bezig was met het werven van klanten. Hij onderkende dat kwalitatieve ondersteuning (marketing) en kwantitatieve verkoop onmiskenbaar zijn voor het succes van een bedrijf, maar dan moeten ze wel gecombineerd samenwerken naar een enkel doel, ‘financieel resultaat, het moet geld opleveren’, zegt Peter-Frank. ‘Ik weet nog heel goed dat het salesteam geen idee had van wat marketing aan het doen was en dat marketing omgekeerd zich niet bekommerde om de verkoop.’
Wat Peter-Frank zag was dat de BITSER-methode daar op een natuurlijke wijze verandering in kon aanbrengen, het integreerde immers alle resultaat beïnvloedende factoren in een enkel model. Vanaf dat moment moest alles wat de bank deed onderbouwd zijn. ‘Meten is weten’, was het credo van Peter-Frank. Marketing moest aantonen dat het de verkoop ondersteunt en het salesteam moest bewijzen dat het op dat fundament verkoopresultaat boekte. De resultaten van de activiteiten werden gemeten en gerapporteerd. Marketing groeide naar sales toe en sales naar marketing.
Peter-Frank: ‘Er zijn weinig bedrijven die dat goed doen, het is ook niet zo eenvoudig om verschillende culturen met elkaar verweven.’
Meten, meten, meten
Door het meten en rapporteren werden ook nieuwe pijnpunten zichtbaar. Hoe goed de marketing- en salesafdeling ook samenwerkten, het lukte niet om het aantal afspraken te genereren, dat nodig was om een gezond aantal verkopen te krijgen en financieel resultaat te boeken. Het werd geweten aan het feit, dat Fortis Bank een te kleine speler was in het geweld van de grote internationale banken. Een multinational keek er niet naar om. Het marktaandeel was slechts 6%, zes keer zo klein als de marktleider, dan is het onmogelijk om de strijd om de klant te winnen.
Het BITSER-model toonde echter aan dat het formaat van een onderneming helemaal niet van invloed is voor succes. Het vertelde iets heel anders: de focus lag verkeerd, de medewerkers richtten zich bij het benaderen van hun doelgroepen op de verkeerde dingen. Het gevolg was dat de aanpak van de bank een complete omslag maakte, volgens de regels en wetten van het BITSER-model. Iedere beslisser van een multinational werd stapsgewijs langs de treden van de BITSER-trap genomen. Beginnend bij de bekendheid tot en met het stimuleren van de referentieverkopen bij standvastige relaties.
De bank werd door de marketingafdeling niet-kopieerbaar gepositioneerd, waarmee de fundering werd gelegd voor het salesteam, dat met de juiste ondersteunende middelen afspraken en verkopen wist te realiseren. De loyaliteit onder bestaande klanten werd door speciale ‘service-teams’ een impuls gegeven.
Dit ging echter niet zonder slag of stoot. Peter-Frank – kritisch als hij is – wilde geen geld uitgeven als hij niet het vooruitzicht had op resultaat, daarnaast diende de collega’s van de interne organisatie hun medewerking te verlenen, zonder hen zou het niet gaan lukken.
‘De ketting is zo sterk als de zwakste schakel’, zegt Peter-Frank mij als ik hem interview voor deze casestudy. ‘De executie was uitermate belangrijk, daar heb ik mij hard voor gemaakt, door van elke zwakke schakel een sterke te maken.’ De aandacht voor de interne organisatie blijft nog vaak onderbelicht, ‘terwijl die juist alle aandacht opeist, vooral als je de Bitsing-methode toepast, want die hangt nogal aan een specifieke focus.’ De interne organisatie moet mee. ‘Vergeet de interne component nooit’, is het advies van Peter-Frank. Door het geloof dat de medewerkers kregen van de nieuwe aanpak en het commitment van het management kreeg Peter-Frank de ruimte om de dingen die nodig waren door te voeren. Hij ging voor resultaat.
De ontdekking van de resultatenvoorspelling
Voordat er een start werd gemaakt met het ontwikkelen van campagnes en het op-lijnen van de interne organisatie wilde Peter-Frank een onderbouwing voor de benodigde investeringen. Dat zou het vrijmaken van budgetten vergemakkelijken. ‘Hoe kan ik laten zien dat als ik ergens geld in stop, dat ik het er ook uit kan halen?’ Met die vraag gingen Peter-Frank en ik aan de slag. Het BITSER-model, dat vorm krijgt met programma’s, heeft ons aangezet om het te kwantificeren, om aantallen en geld achter de BITSER-treden te plaatsen.
Op een enkele A4 ontstond geleidelijk aan een nieuw model, een model dat bleek te voorspellen. Dat aantoonde dat een omzetdoel met een specifiek aantal nieuwe en bestaande klanten zou worden gerealiseerd, dat de investering in elk programma van de BITSER-trede een aantoonbaar rendement zou opleveren. Het model voorspelde voor Fortis Bank dat de benodigde programma-investering omzet en rendement zou opleveren. Het gevolg was dat de budgetten werden vrijgemaakt en de programma’s werden uitgerold.
Het resultaat
Bijna alles werd gemeten. Eerst een 0-meting om het startpunten te bepalen en tijdens en na de uitvoering van de programma’s. Er is gemeten hoe de markt reageerde op de niet-kopieerbare propositie die het merk was meegeven, de effecten op de BITSER-treden, alsmede de verkopen en het rendement. ‘Daardoor zagen wij dat we niet alleen op de verkopen goed hadden gescoord, maar ook op veel andere punten’, aldus Peter-Frank. De resultaten waren ronduit prachtig.
De spontante naamsbekendheid ging van 36% naar 54%. Het percentage dat Fortis Bank overweegt verdubbelde bijna – van 13% naar 24% – en een vijfde van de totale doelgroep vroeg informatie aan. Uit onderzoek bleek dat de bank werd gezien als internationaal, zakelijk en een bank voor mij. Scores, die hoger lagen dan na de miljoenen-verslindende campagnes die Fortis eerder had gevoerd.
Met deze verhoogde mate van voorkeur was de weg vrij voor het salesteam om effectief afspraken te realiseren. De respons op afspraken ging – hou je vast – van 0% naar 45%. Al binnen de eerste twee weken van campagne voeren werd er een respons gerealiseerd van 12%. De effectiviteit van afspraken ging van 3 afspraken op de 10 personen, naar 9 op de 10. Van de totaal benaderde doelgroep ging uiteindelijk 33% in op een afspraak. Ook de kosten van een afspraak daalden drastisch, van € 1.400 per afspraak naar € 209.
Doelen bereikt!
De nieuwe aanpak had Fortis Bank bij haar doelstellingen gebracht. Ruim 33% van de personen waarmee een afspraak is gemaakt, werd klant, dat is 1 klant op de 3 afspraken.
Uiteindelijk werd 1,3% van de bereikte doelgroep klant. Drie keer zoveel als het doel.
Het rendement werd 2,5 keer zoveel als verwacht.
Voorspeld was dat de investering 19% zou bedragen van het begrote rendement, maar het werd 8% van het werkelijk behaalde rendement.
Grootse gevolgen van een kleine wijziging
Om het effect van de niet-kopieerbare propositie te meten, is een test gedaan binnen de doelgroep van Fortis Bank. Het merk-programma dat deze niet-kopieerbare propositie moest funderen werd in de testgroep vervangen door een product-programma. De respons op afspraken was 8% ten opzichte van 45% bij het programma met de niet-kopieerbare propositie. Door louter over de producten en diensten te praten werd nog geen vijfde van wat mogelijk bleek gehaald.
Hoe de medewerkers van Fortis Bank het hebben ervaren?
Peter-Frank: ‘We hebben gezien dat als je geen invloed hebt op de interne organisatie, je minder grip hebt op de uitvoering en je afhankelijk bent van wat de medewerkers oppikken. Heel veel moet van de eigen organisatie komen. Zij mogen nooit vergeten worden. Je kunt veel zelf doen, maar niet alles.’ De resultaten van een interne tevredenheidsenquête:
effectiviteit 8
creativiteit 8
sparren/samenwerken 9
inzet medewerkers 9
interne ondersteuning 8
collegialiteit 9
begrip van problematiek 8
Tenslotte Peter-Frank: ‘Ondanks dat Fortis Bank toentertijd maar een kleine bank was, hebben we het toch voor elkaar gespeeld, we hebben de markt veroverd en dat met een voorspeld resultaat en rendement.’
Peter-Frank is nu zelfstandig interim-manager, hij helpt afdelingen binnen organisaties geïntegreerd samenwerken naar een enkel doel: financieel resultaat.
ONL: Hans Biesheuvel interviewt Frans de Groot
Hans Biesheuvel van ONL en Frans de Groot, Grondlegger van de Bitsing methode, hebben geruime tijd meegewerkt aan het RTL tv-programma “De Ondernemersclub” en hebben het vaak gehad over hoe organisaties kunnen groeien. Hieronder één van hun interviews over “Bitsing en het boek Garanties voor Groei”.
Interview Aircraft Company
Nayak Aircraft Services – the BiTSing method at work in the labour market
• Optimal staff recruitment
• Improving employee performance
Bitsers are sometimes surprised by the power of their own ideas. This happened to Patrick Morcus of Nayak Aircraft Services. The Bitsing method, which Nayak use to recruit new clients, became a powerful personnel recruitment tool which also improved the organisation’s performance. It delivered results which seemed impossible to achieve using traditional staff recruitment tools. Nayak recruited 124 new employees, in a labour market in which such staff were difficult, if not seemingly impossible, to find. ’Without Nayak – things don’t take off’.
This was the (literally translated) slogan on the presentation boards shown to me by Patrick Morcus, managing director of Nayak Aircraft Services. To which he added, ”Look, I’m not really keen on this. To be quite honest, I don’t know if this is what we are going to run with. Can you also recruit staff – using the same method?” My answer was, ”If you can recruit clients using Bitsing, why not employees? personnel recruitment is surely just selling your company to potential employees?” A smile dawned on Patrick’s face, “Well then, we’d better start doing that straight away!”
Nayak Aircraft Services is an aircraft maintenance company. Located at Amsterdam’s Schiphol airport, its clients number more than 60 airlines and it has maintenance stations at 27 airports,
across Europe. Nayak is like an emergency help automobile association – of the air. If an aircraft has a problem, Nayak solves it immediately, so that it can proceed safely to its destination. The company has been a fervent Bitsing user since the time of the method’s introduction. It has used Bitsing to achieve its commercial goals for years. It is also the first business to have created a specialised, dedicated department for this purpose. It has no marketing department, it has a Bitsing department, which supervises correct application of all aspects of the method.
Nayak is also extremely successful, which is a function of the extraordinary drive and passion that its people bring to their jobs. As a result, it holds an increasingly important position in the international aviation services market. At Schiphol it is responsible for providing technical services to one third of all aircraft taking off and landing at this huge airport. And this achievement has not remained unnoticed. One evening an SMS message arrived from Patrick, ‘Standing on stage at FD (the leading, Dutch financial newspaper) Gala event. Have won FD Gazelle Award for 500% growth over recent years and consistent personnel quality. Also due to your efforts. Thanks v. much!’
Nayak’s growth remained unstoppable. By the end of 2007 Nayak had closed major contracts with KLM Cityhopper, to maintain all its aircraft. The contract would commence on 1 April 2008, for a limited number of aircraft, and from 31 October 2008 for the entire fleet. To meet these contractual requirements the company had to recruit a total of 104 aviation technicians, and have 48 already operational by 1 April 2008!
Not an easy task – to put it mildly – as these people were as rare as hen’s teeth. They belonged to the category of personnel in shortest supply – worldwide.
Meantime 1 April was four months away and Nayak was contractually bound to ‘deliver’ on this date. Everything possible was done to recruit the required staff. Recruitment and temporary staff agencies were briefed, as well as a well-known labour market communication agency. Despite these measures, nothing worked. Patrick had run out of options. In any event until he had his breakthrough idea and asked me, “Can you also recruit staff using the Bitsing method?” It was an opportunity for the Bitsing method to demonstrate, for the first time in its existence, that it was also effective in therecruitment of high level, specialised personnel.
All seven steps of the Bitsing method were implemented, in precisely the same way as when applied to commercial objectives:
Step 1. Employee recruitment was expressed as a continuity turnover goal.
Step 2. Goal achievement was guaranteed by means of a focus on the hard (financial) facts.
Step 3. Nayak was rendered unbeatable – now backed with the additional benefits of uncopyability. Step 4. A plan was developed to take each potential employee through six steps of the Bitser ladder.
Step 5. This plan was implemented using programs formulated according to Bitser techniques.
Step 6. The programmes were rolled out against predicted results.
Step 7. Profit was guaranteed, with an investment plan in which less money was spent on the programs than they were expected to produce.
Results: The required 48 staff members were recruited well before the deadline of 1 April. On 15 July I received an email from Patrick: ‘Stop the presses! Number of employees exceeded!’ Within a period of eight months Nayak had filled all the required vacancies and had also accumulated a ‘reserve’ of another 20 employees. In total 124 employees had been found, instead of the targeted 104. Nayak had its ‘ducks in a row’ more than three months before the start of its massive KLM assignment. Recruitment interviews were carried out with a total of 517 candidates, from which 124 were employed: a conversion rate of 24%. The final recruitment costs were extraordinarily low: as little as one third of the previously set budget turned out to be enough to achieve the goal. And this budget had been based on the average, expected costs of traditional personnel recruitment. The recruitment campaign had mainly focused on Nayak’s uncopyable proposition as an employer in the personnel market.
By focusing on the hard financial facts, Nayak discovered that its target group consisted of a mix of different job positions, which were jointly responsible for the generation of turnover. Nayak did not only earn its money from deploying technicians, but also by having professionals in operational, supports and administrative functions. These people also had to be recruited, in order to secure the increased turnover. The number required to support the technical service requirements could be calculated per target group and Nayak knew exactly how many people where necessary per group. The campaign objective found commercial expression in a 45% focus on the creation of brand preference, 30% on stimulating purchasing behaviour ( i.e. the decision to enter employment) and 25% on ensuring that the new employees remained at Nayak (i.e. loyalty). As stated, only 30% of the program activities were focused on purchasing behaviour, in other words on the job itself – which therefore did not play a dominant role in the recruitment activities. Nayak used emotional propositions to profile the brand, rational propositions to get people to decide to take the job and relationship propositions to optimise employee performance.
Nayak had to claim an uncopyable proposition for its positioning, one which other brands could not claim because they simply lacked the credentials to do so. Nayak sought its uncopyability within the organisation – where the work took place. It emerged that Nayak had an internal culture which revolved around solid, collegial support between its people. This was translated into the proposition, ‘We never let you down’. Who would not want to work for a company whose people were always there for each other? The campaign execution communicated this ethos by using actual employees instead of professional models. The results prediction quantified how many people would have to be recruited per Bitser programme and per target group. Communication with the target groups was based on the well-known six types of Bitser programmes, each tailored to one of the six Bitser steps.
The program to increase brand awareness consisted of billboards in the Schiphol area, buses for broader regional reach, Nayak’s own fleet vehicles within the airport area and free publicity in aviation industry magazines. The image building program consisted of interviews in industry magazines, a ‘making of’ film (about the Nayak employees who were models in the campaigns) which was posted on YouTube, a specialised personnel market website (which communicated the Nayak philosophy) and an award event (the Dutch Aircraft Maintenance & Repair award, which spotlighted not only Nayak but the entire aviation technology industry). Recruitment interviews were stimulated via a promotional website (called ‘workingatNayak’) which also carried vacancy ads and a personality test to determine applicants’ psychological ‘fit’, a promotion on the Schiphol platform as well as in various airport car parks (this was the Nayak ‘Snack Car’, which offered technicians sodas, snacks and vacancy brochures), a photographic competition (prize: an Airbus 380 scale model) and online banners (on websites frequently visited by the target group, such as a Dutch aviation news site and various blogs).
Entry into employment- the employment contract phase – was supported by small group events, in personal interviews, with a presentation (about Nayak), and via case studies (by and about employees who had just started working at Nayak and who also shared their experiences on the ‘workingatNayak’ website). A satisfaction program served, as implied by its name, to ensure employee satisfaction. This was supported by, among other things, the Nayakclub.nl website (a community where employees could read all about Nayak and about their colleagues – new arrivals, new babies, staff birthdays and other life events and news).
There was an on-site suggestions box and initiatives like ‘A feather in your cap’ (‘award one to a colleague and explain why’), formula 1 and football pools, savings points (for interesting gadgets) and so on. Finally, current employees were encouraged to also identify potential new recruits. For this they were rewarded with Nayakclub.nl savings points – for a skid course, a flip in a helicopter, a casino evening with friends, etc.
Patrick Morcus: “We’ve used the Bitsing method for many years. I found it exceptional that it’s also helped us recruit extremely hard-to-get personnel and that it delivered such quality – nearly everyone is still working for us. A quick success is not so difficult to achieve, but when it involves new employees with such a high degree of loyalty, that’s a real achievement. Bitsing provided an extremely solid foundation. It ensured that our messages were correct, our tasks were very clear and the people we recruited are still with us. Indeed, the picture we presented of the company fitted the reality – Bitsing doesn’t make things look better than they actually are. Which is one of the reasons for our new employees’ continued loyalty.
I first saw the investment in the programs as short term and evaluated it accordingly. However, I have now concluded that the loyalty created by applying the Bitsing is still benefiting us 5 five years down the line. The benefits have turned out to be long-term. I hadn’t previously seen it this way and it’s given me a new perspective. So this isn’t only about achieving short term objectives, I also now look at my investment in Bitsing programs as, indeed, longer term investments. You do keep benefiting from the investment, as long as you use the method correctly. Our uncopyable theme, ‘We never let you down’ has turned out, for instance, to be timeless. We can’t drop it. It remains relevant. And this is the result of Bitsing, of going in search of our own identity, our DNA. And that, also, is something that doesn’t change.
”Everything we did was built according to the Bitser model: the programmes, the ‘workingatNayak’ website – absolutely everything! This includes the employee loyalty program which, after all these years, is still running and is still a success. It’s fantastic. I think it’s the most complete programme ever, from top to tail. Employees even involve themselves in it at home and over weekends. It’s really great. The programme offers employees a sort of savings point, which they can use to buy Nayak goodies. And there’s always a run on these items. Imagine! That’s really brand preference in its purest form. It’s really a unique achievement for a technical business that’s not really ‘sexy’!
“Bitsing also makes salespeople increasingly less important. They no longer have to sell, as the sale is already made. This is what that the programmes do for you. My salespeople are becoming order takers. Sales appointments no longer revolve around whether the order is placed or not. Customers simply order. This makes Bitsing more of a goal achievement model than a selling model. The method itself is a ‘manager’ – it brings oversight to the otherwise intangible process of managing, guiding and evaluating employees. It also makes internal operational processes transparent and controllable. ”What have I learnt from Bitsing, in practice? It comes down to translating your dreams into objectives and realising that you can use the model to achieve these goals, provided you stick to the method. You have to trust the model and not diverge from it too quickly. Businesses will always throw up issues that could make you want to change strategy. Experience has taught me that the viability of the model far outlasts the whims of the market.”
How the 80/20 myth is destroyed!!!
Bitsing destroys the 80/20 myth. It is common talk that 80% of our revenues come from 20% of the customers and vice versa that 20% of our revenue come from 80% of our customers. The thousands of Bitsing casestudies which are based on factual data has shown that this is a myth. What the casestudies show is that it is not as simple as this myth suggests. Instead, what is discovered is that there are six core datasets that represents 100% of revenue. The ideal split of this 100% over the six core datasets, that ensures the continuity of an organisation, equals 35%, 25%, 20%, 10%, 5% and 5%.
Interview Shell International
SHELL INTERNATIONAL
Always forecast
I write many blogs. I do this, on the one hand, to share the benefits of my Bitsing method and on the other hand to inspire people who are on the way to achieving their goals. The blogs are widely read. And one of them drew an unusual response: “Bitsing remains impressive in its simplicity and accuracy”.
It came from Sven Kramer, Senior Strategy, Planning & Performance Management Lead at one of the world’s biggest companies, Shell.
The positions Sven has occupied during his long career at Shell could fill their own chapter in this book. Rarely have I seen such an impressive career. So I am not surprised that Sven is responsible, at general management level, for ‘global business performance management in support of capital investment decisions worth billions’.
And I expect this makes him a source of inspiration when it comes to the business of making difficult decisions.
So I am pleased and surprised when the subject of this impressive resume responds to my request for an interview with an immediate ‘yes’. More so when he continues, “I have great confidence in your method. In fact, a smart colleague recently applied the theory to show that a large-scale, international initiative was not all that profitable”. I was, of course, flattered – and keen to know more.
Join me, as I learn a few things from a conversation with Sven Kramer.
We’re in the room in which Sven once attended one of my Bitsing Master Classes. “I still remember attending that inspirational master class here”, said Sven. “Your method has had some great successes. You will continue to grow, of course, if you just continue to apply your own model”, he smiles.
Sven has been inspired by Bitsing, in a number of ways. But what has intrigued him most is the method’s ability to detect answers to complex problems using fact-based models. “It’s this factual aspect that I find so special. It’s what occupies Shell each day; making things … factual. We don’t just take action. Everything is tested, made fact-based, as it were. Because what we are doing represents investments of billions.”
“In my role as international Strategic Advisor”, says Sven, “I received a question requiring the full attention of my colleagues and myself – as unprecedentedly large investments are involved, with equally large risks if it all goes wrong. The question concerned a new energy source – one that is hidden deep in the earth. (I’ll just use the general term ‘new energy source’ here, to avoid a long technical explanation.)”
“This new energy source had seen a lot of growth in some parts of the world, and the question was where else we could grow this new energy source? So they engaged my department to find out.”
“At the outset you think of the big financial potential; the resource is everywhere. But this quickly narrows to: ‘But where, precisely?’ So yes, we search, worldwide, at the locations where we think we’ll find it. And we went for it. We invested. We searched. But it gradually became apparent that it wasn’t going all that well. A kind of awareness dawned: We think we’ll find it somewhere … but how factually correct is that thought, in itself?
“Then you arrived, with the Master class on your Bitsing method. Your approach to making choices, in the form of the pencil philosophy, was particularly relevant to this problem, and we applied the model to our situation with the new energy source.”
“The issue is that we work in many different countries, all over the world. And the size of the investments involved and, indeed, of the world as exploration area, are a cause of concern. The investing starts with the first geological analysis, which of course costs money. Then there are the next steps, each of which cost even more money. I’ll keep it simple for the reader, but think of drilling a well, or a number of them; the amount of money you invest without knowing what it’s going to yield, grows with each step. And if there are, ultimately, cautious, positive signals, you’re not there yet. You must then build a whole lot of facilities and pipelines, and invest an even larger amount.
In short, all the stages you pass through and all the investments must at least be repaid. However, you don’t know in advance whether those cost will be recovered.”
Sven remains quiet for a moment. “Do you know that only a minority of the pilot projects are ultimately successful? Yet the investments in the majority of the unsuccessful attempts, or where we should have stopped projects earlier, must also be recovered?
This corresponds to those experienced in product innovation in general. Only about one innovation in ten is successful – and that one success must cover the investment in the other nine innovation attempts.
“That means”, continues Sven, “That this, single, successful project, that will undergo full development, must pay for all the projects, worldwide, that are not successful. And that is a lot of expense.
If you do the sums you quickly conclude that you need to raise your strike rate. Partly on the basis of your pencils model and the philosophy behind it.
We started costing out all aspects of the new energy source; using numbers which, as your model says, must be based on hard financial facts. This showed that our focus model actually wasn’t so great,” said Sven, his tone reflecting the negative impact of this discovery.
“The focus on this new energy source was out of proportion – far too big in relation to its expected turnover, to its capacity to produce a positive yield. That yield appeared more marginal than what we can make on traditional oil and gas – in other words from our ‘sharp pencils’, to use your terminology”, said Sven.
“So the new energy source was a ‘blunt pencil’, but one that got an amount of attention comparable to that given to our sharpest pencils, namely oil and gas. And we had to use its much smaller margin to cover a very large investment, with a much lower chance of success.
So, yes, as often happens with the Bitsing model, we had to conclude that our initial approach didn’t look too good from a commercial point of view. The degree of focus, of course, had to change.
So we did that.
We first looked at making a more intensive version equivalent to your model; at how we could refine the model and adapt it to our complex processes. By applying a more factual focus, based on financial facts, we aimed to increase the success rate of our selections.
We started identifying criteria, which raise the chance of financial success. We called them the Big Rules. If a project didn’t sufficiently match the criteria, we immediately stopped it. We stopped earlier than before, in this way keeping the costs as low as possible.
We applied this. And it then appeared that the new energy source had more chance of succeeding if you prospect in areas in which you already produce, areas that represent sharp pencils – where we have a firm handle on the models.
In contrast, if you explore in a totally new area, you have to set up everything without knowing whether the project is going to be profitable. To keep within the pencil metaphor, you have to sharpen that pencil from the start, but without knowing if you’ll ever manage to get a sharp point on it.
The selected areas, on the other hand, the pencil is already sharp [there is no perfection in underground oil & gas]. And so, working together, we arrived at the Big Rules: What do we have to take into account to increase our chances of success? In so doing, we had actually created a predictive model for future projects, with all the positive implications of such a tool, such as significant savings in terms of efficiency and an increase in effectiveness and success rate”, says Sven.
He follows this fascinating account with how they are now applying the approach in practice.
“We are therefore making increasingly critical evaluations of whether a project matches the Big Rules. If the answer is ‘yes’, we have a big chance of continuing the process. If not, then we must be disciplined enough to stop applying it, before it goes wrong.
I do operate at mega high level. One shows a number of slides and makes a proposal and then the people in the country take that and get to work. And once I see that happening I step out of it. But in the case of the strategy for the new energy source I hung around, because I found what happened there very special”, says Sven.
“It’s so great when you see a result. They were using the sharpened approach, which was something in itself, and there was a positive result for our business, for our employees and for the surrounding area.
What I could recommend to everyone is focus on your current source of business. Look at the facts: Do not just go out and start the adventure anywhere and then go for it, full on. Things could go very wrong. The chance of things going wrong is much larger if you’re in areas that are new to you, than in those where you already know all the ins and outs.
The risk of something going wrong in unfamiliar territory is many, many times bigger – and that is the risk we have now reduced, with this new approach.”
“You’ve been with Shell for a long time?” I ask.
“Yes”, says Sven – in the manner of one contemplating this for the first time. “In fact, for my whole working life. The funny thing is that when I had interviews at Shell there were people who’d worked for the company for ten, twelve, fifteen years – and I was amazed that they could have been with the same company for so long. I didn’t understand it. Now I can identify with them completely – the international opportunities, job rotation, leadership development and travel are all things I’ve now also experienced and, indeed, have enjoyed very much. So I would now give the same answers if young people asked me why I’ve worked for this company for so long. I have had many different jobs. I have worked in different countries. I work for one of the largest and oldest companies in the world. In fact a company like this is a world in itself. It has everything. Yes, it has everything and, as a result, evolves and continues to re-invent itself as time passes. Which fascinates me no end.
Somewhere in our company smart men and women are busy right now, just like you, discovering their own Bitsing method and, in the process, applying it. Using it to develop smart things and trigger better and different ways of doing things. They also help drive the entire company, by continuously improving themselves. It’s what we at Shell do, we’re always improving ourselves.
These people are spread throughout Shell, they are to be found in every department and country. And that is very inspiring.”
“Looking at the Bitsing method as a strategist, at Shell, I think it has wide applications”, says Sven. “I was also recently thinking about its application in searching for a job or career, and in the achievement of many other kinds of goals. This methodology automatically makes you think about the choices you are offered. You ask, ‘Does this job offer fit the overall picture?’ Instead of just taking any job. The whole career process could be approached more thoroughly and systematically. I haven’t developed this any further yet. But there, too, lie many opportunities. There are so many applications. I think it’s a great opportunity to investigate all these other applications and apply them.”
Nothing would please me more than to tackle these tasks, together with Sven. Instead, I ask my last question: “You responded to my blog with, ‘Bitsing remains impressive in its simplicity and accuracy’. It’s great to hear this from someone who works for a company the size of Shell, in a complex area, and who has so much influence in the world.”
Sven: “What we’re after isn’t something that’s available off the shelf. Gigantic sums of money are involved and a lot of uncertainty. And one has a lot of responsibility then, to the world. Because no one knows exactly what is under the ground. There are huge uncertainties, with many different aspects, in which a lot of money is involved. And a lot of responsibility – for instance to your employees and to the environment, to take just two aspects.
I would like to pass on the following advice: Keep making forecasts – and use that information to populate a financial model and a planning model.
Try to keep this as fact-based as possible. For us at Shell, this is not an easy process. We don’t know what is under the ground, or in a reservoir. And, to re-visit my example of the new energy source: whereas we originally invested in areas just because we thought we could be successful there (with investments that quickly rise to tens of billions), our forecasts are now significantly more fact-based, also using a Bitsing-like method.
So what I am basically saying is, don’t just start up a project. At least make sure that you estimate the risks you’re going to take, based on the facts to hand and taking all possible risk factors into account.”
Out now: Bitsing Book
BITSING: The world’s first management model that guarantees success
By Frans de Groot
Businesses are on the lookout for the one methodology that singlehandedly helps to achieve their goals, and definitively addresses issues such as ‘what needs to be done’ and ‘which activities to avoid’.
With BITSING, a scientifically proven methodology, one is able to predict results by using facts in order to be 100% certain of achieving goals. This book enables factual insight into (positive) financial returns, in advance of executing strategies accordingly. BITSING can be applied by the biggest multinational to the smallest startup.
As a result of working closely with several universities, the methodology is scientifically validated, in addition to its proven performance within numerous organizations and businesses. Shell International, Hewlett Packard EMEA, and Jamie Oliver’s Fifteen are amongst those that have benefited from this method, by using it to meet targets time and time again. Some have experienced exponential growth and reached the magic 300% level. This book provides valuable insights for CEOs, as well as financial, commercial, and marketing directors/ managers, business owners, startups, and students.
Frans de Groot is the founder of the revolutionary BITSING Methodology. Frans spent 20 years developing this method.
160 pages | 19 x 24 cm | paperback wit flaps | ISBN 978 90 6369 413 5 | € 29.90
Pub date: September 2016
58% meer afspraken voor Kröller Boom
Kröller Boom is een team van ervaren specialisten op het gebied van corporate risk en human capital. Meer dan de helft van de grote private equity investeerders in Nederland kiest voor Kröller Boom als partner. Zij hebben diepgaande kennis van de (inter)nationale markten en de laatste ontwikkelingen. Zij realiseren substantiële kostenreducties, krachtig risicomanagement en gezonde arbeidsrelaties.
Garanties voor groei
De eerste BITSER-activiteit van Kröller Boom heeft gerealiseerd in een groei van afspraken met 58%.
Na een periode van voorbereidingen, waarbij Kröller Boom haar eigen op de Bitsing-methode gestoelde plan heeft opgesteld, heeft deze verzekeraar de garantie dat hij zijn groeidoelstellingen gaat bereiken.
Een eerste stap is gezet naar het bewerken van de eerste drie ‘BITSER-treden’. Met gerichte programma’s, zoals interviews in het Financiële dagblad en de Financiële Telegraaf, een seminar-event en daarom liggende uitnodigingen en (online) campagnes, die elk zijn waar gemaakt met de revolutionaire Bitsing-technieken, is het eerste resultaat een feit: 58% meer afspraken met hoog potentiële prospects dan het doel.
Ook de boodschappen van Kröller Boom naar zijn doelgroepen zijn aan de Bitsing-methode aangepast. Zo is de verzekeraar als enige in de branche in staat om grenzen te verleggen. ‘Pushing the limits’ noemen zij dat. Verzekeren is namelijk niet alleen het afdekken van risico’s, maar ook het mogelijk maken van groei door continu vooruit te kijken en ontwikkelingen en alternatieven pro-actief in te zetten voor klanten. Ben je CEO, CFO of HRO dan weet je dat dit in de verzekeringsbranche een uitzonderlijke competentie is. Zo vertelde Niek Post van Kröller Boom dat hij zich ook richt op nieuwe risico’s voor het bedrijfsleven. “Zoals datalekken, of overstromingen door het steeds extremer wordende weer.”
Door risico’s, kosten en beheer voor organisaties te reduceren en complexe problemen te voorzien en te vereenvoudigen, is er meer te realiseren met minder. Gezond kapitaal, zowel in geld als medewerkers, biedt uiteindelijk de beste garantie om ook in de toekomst te kunnen blijven ondernemen.